Wednesday, 17 June 2009

Fan, feces on collision course

Dan Drezner’s prediction of things to come in Iran:

With the largest protests of the past week scheduled for tomorrow, I think this ends in one of two ways: the removal of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei from power, or bloodshed on a scale that we cannot comprehend.

Actually, come to think of it, those two outcomes are not mutually exclusive.

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I think it’s all coming to a head with Khamenei’s announcement that protests should stop and his endorsement of the election. I expect that the militias will be let loose on the protestors with instructions to end them once and for all. If as reported, the military leadership has already been ‘visited’ by the Republican Guards, I see no hope for the protesters. Look for massive arrests and disappearances. I hope I’m wrong.

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