Tuesday, 12 December 2006

Cutting through the BS of multilevel models

Jeff Gill looks at the plethora of terminology surrounding multilevel models:

There is a plethora of names for multilevel models. Sociologists seem to prefer “hierarchical,” many statisticians say “mixed effects,” and there is heterogeneity about usage in economics. It seems reasonable to standardize, but this is unlikely to happen. ...

Some prefer “random intercepts” for “fixed effects” and perhaps we can consider these all to be members of a larger family where indices are turned-on turned-off systematically. On the other hand maybe it’s just terminology and not worth worrying about too much. Thoughts?

Silly me thought the plethora of terminology was a deliberate obfuscation effort by methodologists to make them look like they know more stuff than they actually do. For example, smarty-pants methodologists could say in casual conversation, “I know hierarchical models and mixed effects!” And unless you knew that they were the same thing, the smarty-pants methodologist would look like s/he was two things smarter than the non-smarty-pants methodologist who didn’t know either.

I may try this myself in interviews… “I know logistic regression and logit!” “I know dummy variables and fixed effects!” I feel smarter already…

2 comments:

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[Permalink] 1. Michelle Dion wrote @ Tue, 12 Dec 2006, 2:59 pm CST:

You’re right…the variation in terminology can seem like an effort to exclude. For example, I have experience analyzing TSCS data and am familiar with fixed effects/random effects/whateverBeckandKatzmightbesellinglately. [As a funny aside, my much beloved TSCS instructor who shall remain nameless—though you might be able to guess, and it wasn’t Stimson, he’s much too nice a guy—taught me to be skeptical of whateverBeckKatz&Satanwereselling.] This spring, I’ll begin a new project where I’d like to combine firm-level survey data with country-level characteristics and have been led to believe by the terminology that I’ll need to learn a new class of models: hierarchical linear or multi-level linear models. Of course, these models might not be that different mathematically from the TSCS models I’ve estimated before. But since I don’t usually look under the hood and can’t derive the proof that they are mathematically equivalent in certain ways, they seem different to me. The data structure is different (instead of one set of dummies for each panel [i.e., fixed effects], I’ll have several interval variables), so the naive methodologist in me would believe that the estimation should be different, too.

 

It seems to me that the only thing that would be different (possibly) is the structure of the error term—i.e. you’d expect errors to be correlated between firms in the same country. But I haven’t sat down with my Hierarchical Bayesian Mixed Effects in Clusters books lately.

 
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