Friday, 19 November 2004

More Diebold scaremongering

Kieran at Crooked Timber is the latest to point to a UC-Berkeley study that represents the new Great Kerry-Really-Won Hope for the left; there’s apparent county-level evidence that Florida counties that used electronic voting had a greater increase in Bush support from 2000 than counties that used optical-mark scanning. Rick Hasen has dug up some skeptical responses from voting experts, while Patrick Ruffini notes the bivariate relationship counters the authors’ thesis.

Of course, Diebold and the other e-voting manufacturers could have forestalled all of this silliness from the start by including a paper trail in their equipment.

Update: Andrew Gelman says only two counties are driving the results: the adjacent Southeast Florida counties of Palm Beach and Broward, both of which have relatively large Jewish populations (and thus might have been disproportionately more likely to vote Democratic in 2000 for the Gore-Lieberman ticket than for the 2004 Kerry-Edwards ticket).

1 comment:

Any views expressed in these comments are solely those of their authors; they do not reflect the views of the authors of Signifying Nothing, unless attributed to one of us.
[Permalink] 1. Bob Gelman wrote @ Sun, 28 Nov 2004, 8:09 pm CST:

I tend to assume that the Republicans cheated, based on the facts that they cheated in 2000 in many ways, and they already cheated in 2004 prior to the election (setting up a list of disallowed voters which included most blacks that could possibly be disallowed, but almost no hispanics, having insufficient and inconvenient registration places and procedures in Democratic districts, having insufficient no. of machines, spreading false information about voting requirements, intimidating black voters, etc). And who knows what could have been done to the machines.

Therefore, without a full and impartial investigation, I have no confidence in the “official” results.

Incidentally, there is no statute of limitations for fraud.

 
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