Ole Miss 24–Auburn 20. I’ve just got one thing to say:

The Jackson Clarion-Ledger reports that Rebel running back Ronald “Goldie” McLendon is being investigated for possible rules violations in connection with the purchase of an SUV last month. (Link via the SEC Fanblog.)

Last week, I was also perfect; so I’ll be continuing the “quickie picks” format.

• South Carolina over ARKANSAS (at Fayetteville, Thursday). [Ok, that one didn’t work out so well…]
• MIAMI over Tennessee. Now that the SEC East tiebreaker has changed, this game means even more than it did a few days ago.
• MISSISSIPPI STATE over Alabama. Just a gut feeling here; it’s probably State’s best remaining chance for a win.
• FLORIDA over Vanderbilt. The “Duh” pick of the week.
• Ole Miss over AUBURN. See my post on this game for the skinny.

I’ve updated this post a bit to elaborate on some points, but none of the predictions were changed.

Lee Corso writes the following at ESPN.com in his “Lee-mail” column about the Rebels’ upcoming game with Auburn:

How do you see this weekend’s SEC West matchup between Auburn and Ole Miss?—Mike, Phoenix, Ari.

The biggest question is whether Mississippi can stop the Auburn running game. The Rebels are near the bottom of the SEC in rushing defense while the Tigers have shown they can run against anyone when they’re hot. Throw in quarterback Jason Campbell hitting some play action and Auburn can be dangerous. But Eli Manning and the Ole Miss offense can put up some numbers, too, but this will be the toughest test Mississippi encounters for the remainder of the year. [emphasis added]

Only one problem with this statement: the Rebels are #13 in the country and #3 in the SEC in rushing defense, conceding just 90.1 ypg on the ground. (Auburn is #14/#4, giving up 92.0 ypg rushing.) They can stop the run. The area where the Rebels are inconsistent—and vulnerable—is in pass defense (#115 nationally and dead last in the SEC, with 307.9 ypg), particularly against the “deep ball,” which Texas Tech and Memphis successfully exploited in their wins and which helped South Carolina back into the game this past weekend.

I agree that if Campbell can pull off the play action pass, Auburn probably has a good shot. But Campbell is a woefully inconsistent passer (4 TDs and 8 INTs on the season) who could easily get burned if he tries to go with the deep ball—ask Chris Leak, who threw 3 INTs to the Rebel secondary in Gainesville; this will require Carnell Williams and Auburn’s Brandon Jacobs (not to be confused with Ole Miss’ Brandon Jacobs, who plays the same position) to both be effective on the run and to catch short passes from Campbell. I’d expect them to have some success on the ground—I’ll be surprised if the Rebels can keep Auburn under 150 yards rushing, excluding sacks—but I don’t see Campbell passing for big numbers (the numbers he will put up will be largely due to yards after the catch) and I expect him to take at least a couple of sacks and to throw a costly pick.

On the other side of the ball, though, the only people who can beat the Rebels’ offense are themselves. The South Carolina game could—and should—have been 44-14 at halftime, if not for two silly turnovers in the red zone, and the Rebels have essentially been able to execute at-will against every defense they’ve faced this year except in the season opener at Vanderbilt and at Florida.

I also think that, overall, LSU is a tougher test for the Rebels: they have a more effective passer, better balance overall, and a smarter coach. However, the Rebs will be at home facing LSU and coming off an off-week, so arguably the difficulty level of the challenges balances out.

My sketch of a prediction for Saturday is that Ole Miss wins a nailbiter, probably with a score in the 27-21 range.

Also on Corso’s page, I’m inclined to agree that if Florida beats FSU, they should probably get the SEC East bid (if there’s a tiebreaker). My guess though is that the ADs will vote for the team with the highest poll ranking, unless there’s a convoluted scenario that permits the conference to secure a second bid to a BCS bowl.

Quite a yawner of a weekend ahead in the conference, except the Ole Miss-USC and Florida-Georgia games. Since I went 6-0 last week, I’ll try this format again…

• OLE MISS over South Carolina. Apparently it’s trendy to pick the Gamecocks for the upset, but I just don’t see it.
• AUBURN over Louisiana-Monroe. I think…
• Florida over Georgia (in Jacksonville). It’s the trendy pick, but I think it’s right.
• TENNESSEE over Duke. The official “duh” pick of the week.
• Arkansas over KENTUCKY. Not really sure why; the Sagarin ratings at least agree with me.
• LOUSIANA STATE over Louisiana Tech. Unless the Tech team that beat Michigan State (Nick Saban’s old squad) comes calling, that is…

Next week, things get a little more interesting as the Rebels travel to Auburn and UT takes a trip to Coral Gables to face now-#2 Miami.

No time for detailed predictions, I’ll just cut to the chase…

• KENTUCKY over Mississippi State. I might give State the edge in Starkville, but fundamentally the Wildcats are playing better football.
• GEORGIA over Alabama-Birmingham. Duh.
• Tennessee over ALABAMA. The Tide haven’t been rolling—they’ve been rolling over. Expect that to continue today in Tuscaloosa, even against an overrated UT squad.
• OLE MISS over Arkansas. Ground-happy attacks have gotten nowhere against the Rebels this year, and unless Matt Jones has become a much better passer in the past seven days it could be a long night at Vaught-Hemingway for Jones and the Razorbacks.
• LOUISIANA STATE over Auburn. Should be a classic battle, but in the end I think home field—night in Death Valley—gives LSU the edge here, particularly if Auburn thinks they can get away without a passing game.
• SOUTH CAROLINA over Vanderbilt. There’s nothing quite like a visit from the Commodores to rejuvenate your spirits after being eliminated from the conference title race.

As always, there’s good stuff at the SEC Fanblog as well.

Pat Forde has an interesting piece up at ESPN.com that takes a look at how the Rebels’ season may be shaping up this year; like Forde, I’m cautiously optimistic, and I think this Saturday’s game against Arkansas (6:15 Central on ESPN2) will be a bellweather for the rest of the season.

The David Cutcliffe Season Survival Meter has been a rousing success so far. It’s time to look back at the initial announcement and see how David is doing (and where he needs to go from here).

In the initial post, I outlined some minimum requirements for his survival:

1. Defeating homecoming foe Arkansas State.
2. Defeating SEC West cellar-dweller Mississippi State on Thanksgiving.
3. Defeating at least 3 of the 6 other SEC opponents.

So far, Cutcliffe has accomplished #1 and two-thirds of #3. The Rebels [5-2, 3-0 SEC] took care of Florida for the second straight season, blew out Arkansas State, and—this Saturday—thoroughly outplayed Alabama, a long-term nemesis of the program.

Now, though, I wonder if Cutcliffe has raised expectations to the point that these minimum requirements may be insufficient. Rebel fans did not expect the team to win both the Florida and Alabama games. An SEC West title is now almost expected, which means that if the team fails to deliver the faithful may want a new coach—particularly if Mississippi State looks like it might attract a name coach.

So, what do the Rebels have to do to win that title? The easy answer is “win out.” The second-best answer is that the Rebels can afford a loss, as long as it’s not against Auburn, because of the division tiebreaker rule (if both Auburn and Ole Miss are 7-1, the head-to-head winner is division champion); however, they are probably the largest impediment to winning out for the Rebels, as they are the main road test. Third-best is beat everyone except Auburn and hope someone hangs two losses on the Tigers. Auburn will probably lose at Georgia, and their upcoming trip to LSU is going to be a tough challenge for Tommy Tuberville’s squad as well. It is important to bear in mind that LSU is still lurking as well.

So, the DCSSM rests on the Rebels now winning the SEC West—something I’m perversely optimistic will happen. If the Rebels do it, Cutcliffe will be hailed as the reincarnation of both Johnny Vaught and Bear Bryant. If they don’t, expect him to be the sacrificial lamb for an embattled university administration already reeling from their mishandling of the Colonel Reb debacle.

As expected, Mississippi State football coach Jackie Sherrill announced his plan to retire at the end of this season today. (I might have expected him to wait a few more weeks, but I think in the long term it’s probably better for his reputation that he got it out of the way before 2-4 becomes 2-9.)

This announcement, incidentally, makes it a virtual certainty that the Bulldogs will win the Thanksgiving day match against the Ole Miss Rebels.

James Joyner thinks baseball needs some serious reform, including a shorter regular season or changes in the postseason format to make the difference in regular season record more meaningful.

Of course, my friend Scott would argue that because of the designated hitter rule, the American League isn’t actually playing baseball—a game that, by rule, is played by nine people.* Hence this would be reform of a game with a strong resemblance to baseball…

Roger L. Simon thinks the Kobe Bryant prosecution is rapidly coming apart in light of the lackluster evidence shown in the preliminary hearing. I don’t know if I’m quite as convinced as Roger that Bryant is being “railroaded,” but a CBSNews.com opinion piece that characterizes the case as being “weak with gusts up to pathetic” is pretty synomymous to my reaction.

Did Bryant rape this woman? I honestly don’t know. But unless the prosecution comes up with a smoking gun that isn’t in evidence at this point, there’s enough reasonable doubt here to fill Glenwood Canyon. The only thing I can figure is that the prosecutor thought (thinks?) he was going to get some sort of plea bargain from Bryant.

Daily Mississippian columnist Steven Godfrey is singling out the Ole Miss fraternities and sororities for their lackluster support of the Rebels at Homecoming. Quoth Godfrey:

For all the commotion (and emotion) being thrown about regarding a simple mascot, the student body has done little to show their strength inside Vaught-Hemingway stadium when it's needed. (When's it needed? All the time.)

Call me crazy, but logic holds that if you're so passionate about your football mascot, you are in turn passionate about your football team.

So who's to blame?

Why, the greeks of course. …

The fact is that the greek community showed up en masse on Saturday only to witness the homecoming court ceremony, a meaningless event saturated by greeks that served to only bestow useless titles upon (you guessed it) greeks.

Then, as soon as the pomp and circumstance subsided, the navy blazer and high heel crowd bolted on the team they claim to love just as much as Tiger fans love their LSU, or Auburn fans theirs, or any other conference school sans Vandy.

Meanwhile, Sigma Chi pledge Reid Waltrip is recovering from a mysterious head injury he sustained last Monday night on Bid Day; by all accounts, Waltrip is lucky to have survived the blow.

Columnist John Wilbert, on the other hand, blames the scheduling of lackluster non-conference opponents for the lack of fan support. (Not that this theory explains why a significant chunk of the stadium left in the third quarter of the Rebels’ eventual loss to Texas Tech, mind you.)

One sure illustration of the practical limits of statistics is to take a look at the football statistics* compiled by the NCAA, in particular the defensive statistics. For example, take a look at Ole Miss’ season statistics through six games.

The statistic most people have been focusing on is the Rebels’ pass defense, which is giving up 345 yards per game—dead last in the NCAA (117 of 117). Yet in the past two games, the Rebels have only given up 17 points and basically shut down their opponents’ passing games; if they’re the worst pass defense in the country, shouldn’t they have been lit up by Florida and Arkansas State?

There are three forms of selection bias at work here. The first form of selection bias is that opposing teams are passing because their rushing offense is going nowhere (the Rebels are ranked 11th, conceding just 82.5 yards/game on the ground). The second form is that the Rebels have faced two of the country’s most pass-happy offenses: #1 Texas Tech and #13 Memphis, and this hurts their pass defense statistics; the #116 pass defense, North Carolina State, also faced Texas Tech. And the third form is that teams tend to pass when they are behind; the Rebels led both Memphis and Texas Tech by double-digit margins in the second half of both games, so those teams passed even more than usual.

If you just look at the numbers, you’d think the plan to beat Ole Miss would be to pass. But unless your quarterback is as good as B.J. Symons or Danny Wimprine, that may not work; heck, Florida’s Chris Leak, whose passer rating is better than Wimprine’s, threw three picks to the secondary. On the remaining schedule, LSU’s Matt Mauck and MSU’s Kevin Fant are the only QBs known as good passers; Arkansas’ Matt Jones is primarily an option quarterback, as is South Carolina’s Dondrial Pinkins, Auburn’s Jason Campbell is a mediocre passer, and Alabama will be lucky if its third-string QB can suit up with the injuries that plague that team. So exploiting this weakness—if it actually exists—is not something that these teams are likely to be able to accomplish.

ESPN.com is reporting that Boston College is likely to become the 12th member of the ACC on Sunday, once an official invitation from the conference is made official. BC was one of the three schools originally expected to leave the Big East for the ACC (along with Syracuse and Miami), but Virginia state politics played a role in getting the BC and Syracuse invites recinded in favor of Virginia Tech. However, since word came down from NCAA honchos that the ACC’s proposal for a title game with only 11 members would not be acceptable, the writing has been on the wall that the ACC would seek another member (as the economics of expansion only made sense with a title game included).

Incidentally, this may cause the Big East to reconsider their haughty rejection of Memphis’ interest in membership. The only problem now is that the Big East may need schools like Memphis, Louisville, and Cincinnati more than they need the Big East.

In other football news, ESPN.com somehow thinks the Rebels scored −7 points in the fourth quarter of their 55-0 rout of the Arkansas State Indians.

It’s now official.

Auburn [3-2/2-0] 27, ARKANSAS [4-0/1-0] 21 [JP/GamePlan]

Tommy Tuberville's Auburn Tigers roll into Fayetteville trying to keep their recent hot streak alive. Both teams spend most of their time on the ground, so this will probably be a fairly low-scoring affair (particularly due to neither team having a very proficient passing QB). I give Auburn the edge, mainly because they've faced more adversity than the Razorbacks in recent weeks.

VANDERBILT [1-5/0-2] 31, Navy [3-2] 20.

Despite Navy's win over Air Force last week, I have to give the edge to the home team in this one, if only because the Commodores deserve a I-A win this year, and this is their best remaining chance for one.

OLE MISS [3-2/2-0] 51, Arkansas State [3-3] 13.

The Rebels face their final tune-up before starting into the heart of their SEC schedule. Expect the Indians to be held to a couple of field goals against the first team defense, with a late TD against the second team. Sophomore QB Micheal Spurlock should see significant playing time in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Memphis [3-2] 31, MISSISSIPPI STATE [1-4/1-1] 21.

Memphis comes into town with a “revenge game” mindset motivated by Memphis defensive coordinator Joe Lee Dunn, who took the fall for State's 3-8 2002 campaign. While State comes off a win against Vandy-of-the-east Vanderbilt, Memphis is a more complete team all-around (that nonetheless inexplicably lost to UAB last week) than either the Commodores or this year's Bulldogs.

Southern Mississippi [3-2] 24, ALABAMA [2-4/1-2] 17.

The Golden Eagles have a golden opportunity to catch a Crimson Tide team riddled by both injuries and an ineffective offense (and which may be looking ahead to its road date with Ole Miss on October 18). Mike Shula's honeymoon in Tuscaloosa could be over if Alabama can't execute this week.

LOUISIANA STATE [5-0/2-0] 31, Florida [3-3/1-2] 21 [CBS].

One thing's certain: if the Gator team that played in the second half of its game with Ole Miss last week is making the trip to Baton Rouge, they're in serious trouble. The good news for Florida is that if they can execute this week, and Georgia beats UT, they're back in the SEC East race.

Georgia [4-1/2-1] 28, TENNESSEE [4-1/2-1] 21 [ESPN2].

The premiere matchup of the week, this game is likely to crown the SEC East champion (barring a comeback by Florida). Ultimately Georgia has played better in tight games than UT, and aren't afraid of hostile road games, and thus I give the edge to the Bulldogs.

The search for a replacement mascot for Colonel Reb is over, according to Friday’s Daily Mississippian. His replacement: nothing. Advantage: me.

I’m not thinking clearly enough today to post a full set of predicitions for this weekend’s games, but I will go ahead and pick SOUTH CAROLINA over Kentucky tonight (ESPN), by a score of 31-21. No particular reason, except that Kentucky has underperformed to date, while USC has at least looked respectable in its SEC losses. Neither team is going to Atlanta this year, but USC has a decent shot at a bowl if it can win this one and compile a respectable record.

Mike is pretty non-plussed with the replacement mascots being proposed by the administration (and, I for one, basically agree, even though unlike Mike I think the Colonel is embarassing—though I’m more embarassed by the idiots who rally around him than the Colonel image itself). My solution is basically the same one I proposed for the flag mess: replace it with nothing. We don’t need a state flag and we certainly don’t need a mascot. I mean, Auburn’s got six of them but, in the end, they’re still stuck with Tommy Tuberville.

The SEC FanBlog has a post on this as well.

Pete Holiday has written a recap of Week 6 in the SEC, which saves me that chore for this week. Predictions will be forthcoming later.

One thing I will quibble with is that nobody seems to be giving Ole Miss any credit for the win. Perhaps Zook made some questionable calls—I probably would have passed more—but if there’s a rule of coaching, it’s to stick with your game plan, and the way Leak was passing late, he probably would have thrown more picks if Zook went to the air earlier. But, if you look at the stat book, the Gator offense doesn’t look that bad: 376 yards is hardly a sign of offensive weakness, the O-line only conceded one sack, and they went 3 for 4 in the red zone.

Even on defense, the Gators didn’t look that bad. Florida essentially shut down the Rebels’ go-to receiver, Chris Collins, for much of the game (he was held to 5 catches for 72 yards, and didn’t catch a pass until 24 minutes into the game on the drive where UF intercepted the ball). Maybe the defensive line failed to stop a few running plays that they should have, and perhaps the secondary wasn’t prepared for the best passing quarterback they’d seen to date.

But, in the end you have to give some credit to the Rebels, who were down 14-3 early and could have just folded their tents and went home. Instead, they made some adjustments, came out, and played to win the game. Ole Miss may have been mediocre early in the season, but they weren’t mediocre on Saturday when it counted, and now they’re the only team who’s 2-0 in conference road games this season.

After six weeks, things are starting to become a bit clearer in the SEC races, particularly in the East. So it’s time to handicap the teams and try to figure out who’s going to Atlanta, who’s going bowling, and who’s staying home.

In the East, the title race is essentially down to Georgia and Tennessee. Both teams have one loss against a non-division foe. Barring a collapse down the stretch, the winner of Saturday’s contest between these two teams should be the East’s representative in the title game. South Carolina has the talent to win the title, but division losses to both Georgia and Tennessee mean that both must have at least 3 conference losses for the Gamecocks to travel to Atlanta. Florida’s condition is almost as critical, having conceded the tiebreaker to the Volunteers. Lurking in the wings is Kentucky, who at least don’t have division losses to the leaders (yet) but seem unlikely to run the table. Vanderbilt needs to win 5 of 6 to even be eligible to appear in a bowl game, and barring a miracle (victories over all five of their division opponents, coupled with at least one more loss each by the Dawgs and Vols) the Commodores aren’t winning the division. Georgia and Tennessee will almost certainly be going to major bowls (and, if one of these teams wins out, it still has an outside chance at a Sugar Bowl appearance); South Carolina probably will earn a bowl appearance as well. Kentucky and Florida’s bowl prospects are more uncertain.

In the West, things are decidedly more interesting. LSU would appear to have the inside track, with a 2-0 conference mark, being the only undefeated SEC team left, and having some of its most severe conference tests (Florida, Auburn, and final game Arkansas) at home in Death Valley. Arkansas, however, has also looked impressive early in non-conference play, Auburn has apparently turned around their season from a lackluster start, and the offensive line and secondary of Ole Miss finally seem to have figured out how to put the Rebels in a position to win. All of these teams currently are undefeated in conference play, although that won’t last long, with Auburn travelling to Fayetteville on Saturday. Barring disaster, all of these teams should see postseason play, with LSU almost certain to appear in the Sugar Bowl if it runs the table. Alabama remains ineligible for a conference title or a bowl appearance. Mississippi State, despite breaking a nine-game losing streak at home against Vanderbilt this weekend, is unlikely to be bowl-eligible with a 1-5 mark.

Looking ahead, Georgia should have the SEC East title wrapped up after the Florida game November 1st. The West race is likely to come down to the final week, with Arkansas going into Baton Rouge facing LSU for the conference title game berth. Given the reputation of the West for having bruising divisional contests, Auburn or Ole Miss could easily gain an edge—the Rebels have already won two of their four conference road games, never an easy feat in the SEC, while Auburn has the most potent ground game in the division. But for now, I think the most likely outcome is a Georgia-LSU rematch in the Georgia Dome, with Georgia winning the conference for the second straight year.

Dan Drezner, as always, has the latest on the machinations surrounding the Plame/Wilson affair. I don’t have too much to add, since I’m immersed in a fun college football Saturday that has seen the David Cutcliffe Season Survival Meter (current value, as always, in the sidebar) skyrocket by no less than 25 points.

KENTUCKY [2-2/0-1] 24, Florida [2-2/0-1] 17 [JP].

21-24; Kentucky somehow blows the fourth-quarter lead, extending Florida's streak to 17 games in the series.

ALABAMA [2-2/1-0] 27, Arkansas [3-0/0-0] 14 [CBS].

31-34, double OT. Arkansas pulls off the road win in Tuscaloosa, not the easiest thing to do.

AUBURN [1-2/1-0] 35, Western Kentucky [3-0] 17.

48-3; Auburn has now put together two impressive performances against lower-calibre teams after some early disappointments. We'll see if that lasts this week…

VANDERBILT [1-3/0-1] 17, Georgia Tech [1-3/0-2] 14 [PPV].

17-24, OT. Vandy has come oh-so-far, but not-so-far-enough.

TENNESSEE [3-0/1-0] 31, South Carolina [3-1/0-1] 17 [ESPN].

23-20, OT. The Gamecocks put up a good fight at Rocky Top.

Louisiana State [4-0/1-0] 45, MISSISSIPPI STATE [0-3/0-0] 7 [ESPN2].

41-6. Really nothing to say about this one, folks; it was just sad.

OLE MISS [2-1/1-0] 38, Texas Tech [2-1] 21 [Webcast only].

45-49. As-billed, a big shootout. The Rebel secondary continues to get burned for big plays; however, the killer was the lack of red-zone offense that led to 18 of the Rebels' 45 points coming from field goals.

Where does this put everyone in the standings? UT holds the lead in the SEC East at 2-0, with Florida and Georgia tied at 1-1, while everyone eligible for the conference title in the West (except Mississippi State) is undefeated in SEC play. That, however, won't last long. Realistically, the East is down to UT and Georgia already (with Florida with an outside shot if UT collapses down the stretch), while it's still anyone's ticket to Atlanta in the West.

Only four games this week, all of which are East versus West showdowns, three of which are on TV. Starting at the JP game and working later in the schedule:

FLORIDA [3-2/1-1] 27, Ole Miss [2-2/1-0] 18 [JP/GamePlan]

Unless the Rebels' red zone offense drastically improves or the secondary figures out how to limit big plays, Chris Leak will look like the second coming of Johnny Unitas in the Swamp on Saturday. A must-win for both coaches (and for either team to have a shot at the SEC title game).

Vanderbilt [1-4/0-2] 21, MISSISSIPPI STATE [0-4/0-1] 10

Two SEC losing streaks are on the line here in Starkville. I see absolutely no evidence of life out of the Bulldogs, so I have to favor Vandy by default.

GEORGIA [3-1/1-1] 35, Alabama [2-3/1-1] 14 [CBS].

Bama's been all over the map this season. Georgia hasn't. 'Nuff said.

Tennessee [4-0/2-0] 31, AUBURN [2-2/1-0] 17 [ESPN].

Auburn has yet to prove it can win a game against decent opposition. UT, er, actually has won games against decent opposition.

Till next time…

By the way, Pete Holiday has a preview of the UT-Auburn matchup at the SEC Fanblog as well.

Pete Holiday at the SEC Fanblog takes a look at this Saturday’s matchup between Vanderbilt and Mississippi State in Starkville. One SEC losing streak has to come to an end in this one, and Pete gives the edge to the Commodores.

The royal We at Signifying Nothing are proud to introduce a new feature: the David Cutcliffe Season Survival Meter! This is our predicted probability that David Cutcliffe will be the head coach of the Ole Miss Rebels for any game in the 2004 regular season.

We predict Cutcliffe’s survival odds at 0% if the Rebels lose six or more games, and 100% if the Rebels appear in the SEC Championship Game. To survive the season, we expect that the minimum requirements for Cutcliffe to last until 2004 are:

• Defeating homecoming foe Arkansas State.
• Defeating SEC West cellar-dweller Mississippi State on Thanksgiving.
• Defeating at least 3 of the 6 other SEC opponents.

We currently predict that Cutcliffe’s chances of pulling off this feat are 50%. The survival meter will appear on the sidebar for the remainder of the regular season, or until Cutcliffe is fired—whichever event occurs sooner.

AstroPlay® vendor SRI Sports has a video of the installation of their artificial turf at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium this summer. (Yes, this means I’m getting anxious for Saturday’s game…)